an analysis of the “essay on the principle of population.”
comparatively few students of political economy at the present day appear to read malthus’ celebrated essay in the original. this, in our opinion, is a great mistake. that work is as readable now as it was when it attracted such well-merited attention at the commencement of this century; and the statistics given by the learned author become even more valuable than ever, owing to the important additions made to them of recent years by the various modern writers on social economy.
the third edition of malthus’ essay, which appeared in 1806, is now before us: and consists of two volumes of about one thousand pages in all, of large type, full of the most interesting accounts ever given of the manners and customs of the different nations of ancient and modern times. the first volume is divided into two books. in book i. there are fourteen chapters, the first of which states the law of population, or the tendency which population has to increase more rapidly than the means of subsistence. the second chapter treats of the general checks to population, and the way in which these operate. then come three most interesting chapters on the checks to population among savage nations, followed by one on those obtaining among the ancient inhabitants of northern europe. chapter seven gives an account of the checks existing among modern pastoral nations; and this is followed by an account of the checks in africa, and northern and southern siberia. then follows a most interesting account of the brutal checks to population in turkey, and the lamentable starvation checks of hindostan and china. book i. ends with chapters on the checks to population among the ancient greeks and romans.
in book ii. there is a most important account given by mr. malthus of the results of his extensive travels in europe, in 1799 and after years, with details of the checks to population existing in norway, sweden, russia, germany, switzerland, france, england, scotland, and ireland.
9if those persons who at present think that the malthusian law of human increase has been found by subsequent investigation to be erroneous, could only be induced to read mr. malthus’ essay in the original, they would soon find that all these objections have been anticipated in that celebrated work, and perhaps acknowledge, with mr. j. s. mill and other economists, that the truth is “axiomatic,” or no longer requiring discussion. in the last pamphlet, indeed, which we have seen, dedicated to one of the most deservedly popular of modern british authors, thomas carlyle, the writer, like mr. carlyle himself, speaks as if the law of malthus had been refuted; but, as usual in such cases, it is clear that the writer has not the least idea of what the celebrated essay on population was written to prove.
in his first chapter, malthus observes that euler, a great mathematician, had calculated that, on the supposition of such a moderate amount of mortality as one in 36 (which is considerably higher than our present mortality of one in 42 in england), and with the further supposition of the births being to the deaths as three to one (a ratio which seems nearly to hold good, at present, in new zealand), the period of doubling a population would be only 12? years; and sir william petty, in his work on political arithmetic, supposed a doubling to be possible in some ten years.
malthus compares this tendency with the actual increase of man in such countries as china and japan. he observes that it may fairly be doubted whether the best directed efforts of human industry could double the agricultural produce of china even once, in any number of years. the difference between the time of doubling, which has taken place of late in some twenty or thirty years, in north america, and in our australian colonies, when compared with the slow increase of the chinese population, gives the most complete view of the case that can be obtained.
in countries which are naturally healthy, and where the preventive check is found to prevail, too, with considerable force, the positive check, as malthus observes, will prevail very little, and the mortality will be small; but in every country some of the checks are and will always continue to be, in constant operation: so that mankind has only a choice of evils, for we cannot possibly escape from some of the population checks, which are inevitable.
in his third chapter our author reviews the population checks in the lowest stage of human society; and shows how impossible 10it is for such unfortunate peoples as the natives of the tierra del fuego, or of van diemen’s land, to increase rapidly in numbers, owing to their extreme ignorance of the laws of nature. in new zealand, captain cook found the checks to population to be war, and starvation so great as to prompt to cannibalism, in a country where, as it is at present colonized by a civilized people, the deaths seem not to exceed fifteen per 1,000 annually, and population doubles in about twenty years or less, without counting immigrants.
in mr. malthus’ day, there still existed large numbers of those unfortunate races of american indians, which are now so rapidly disappearing in the modern “struggle for existence” with civilised europeans. then, as now, these tribes lived principally by hunting and fishing, most narrow modes of subsistence. the mortality of infants among such tribes was always enormous, and the jesuit missionaries mentioned how that the indians of south america were subject to perpetual diseases for which they knew no remedy; scarcely ever did the individuals of such tribes attain to an advanced age; and the checks to population among them were chiefly of the positive kind—plagues, starvation, brutal wars, and disease. the north american indians, too, lived in such a state of filth and over-crowding in their huts, that every infectious disease carried off vast numbers. cannibalism, according to captain cook, as seen in new zealand and other islands, originated in the fearful privations experienced by such peoples when their numbers were pressing on the food supplies.
and here let us quote malthus’ own words,—“it is not that the american tribes have never increased sufficiently to render the pastoral or agricultural state necessary to them; but, from some cause or other, they have not adopted in any great degree these more plentiful modes of procuring subsistence, and therefore cannot have increased so as to become populous. if hunger alone could have prompted the savage tribes of america to such a change in their habits, i do not conceive that there would have been a single nation of hunters and fishers remaining; but, it is evident, that some fortunate train of circumstances, in addition to this stimulus, is necessary for the purpose.”
in chapter v., our author gives a curious account of how population was checked in the islands of the south seas. it is among such islands as these (and, indeed, the british islands in ancient times resembled them greatly), that we trace the origin of many of the singular institutions destined to retard 11the rapid increase of mankind—cannibalism, late marriages, the consecration of virginity, and ferocious punishments against such women as reproduce the species at too early an age. captain cook found such a constant state of warfare existing among the various tribes in new zealand, that each village in its turn applied to him to assist them in destroying the others. in his third voyage he adds that warlike ferocity is so constant “that one hardly ever finds a new zealander off his guard, either by night or day.”
in otaheite and the society islands, again, where the size of the islands was too small, and the knowledge of navigation acquired by the islanders too scanty to make it possible for population to increase rapidly, all sorts of sufferings were seen among the poorer classes of the people; the richer classes, however, seemed, according to captain cook, to check their own increase by having recourse to the fearful practice of infanticide, to an enormous and unparalleled extent. even with these checks, however, population, in the south sea islands, occasionally pressed so hard on subsistence that animal food became very scarce in certain seasons, and such destructive wars ensued that captain vancouver, on visiting otaheite, in 1777, and again in 1791, found that most of his friends of 1777 were dead, having been killed in the wars. prostitution, and destruction of female infants, were extremely common in otaheite in captain cook’s time.
in taking a general review of that department of human society, classed under the name of savage life, the only advantage malthus notices is the possession of a greater degree of leisure by the mass of the people, than that possessed by those of civilised countries. “there is less work to be done, and, consequently, there is less labour. when we consider the incessant toil to which the lower classes, in civilised societies, are condemned, this cannot but appear to us a striking advantage; but it is probably overbalanced by greater disadvantages.”
this remark of mr. malthus shows us, to a certain extent, on what j. j. rousseau founded his belief as to the superior happiness of the state of nature over the civilised. had rousseau read the essay on population, he could not, we believe, have failed to perceive that the evils of civilisation are almost solely due to the universal want of knowledge of the population law. the late marriages, and prostitution, so bitterly inveighed against by that author, are merely the sorrowful population checks of most modern civilised nations, that have passed into 12the pastoral and agricultural stages of society, and have not yet proceeded far enough to control the enormous fecundity of the race by less painful and more thoughtful expedients than those which jean jacques rousseau so clearly perceived and so powerfully denounced in the french society of the reign of louis xv.
after speaking of the positive checks to population which have been so universal among savage nations, mr. malthus proceeds in chapter vi. to treat of the checks which prevented increase among the ancient inhabitants of the north of europe. astonishment has often been expressed at the hordes of warriors that, at various periods of the decay of the roman empire, were poured down upon it from the northern nations. mr. malthus explains, with great clearness, that, wherever the customs of such nations as composed the immigrants were such as to conduce to health and early marriage, the immense fecundity of the race fully accounts for these crowds of immigrants so rapidly succeeding each other until the destruction of rome ensued. machiavel, in the beginning of his history of florence, says: “the people who inhabit the northern parts that lie between the rhine and the danube, living in a healthful and prolific climate, often increase to such a degree, that vast numbers of them are forced to leave their country and go in search of new habitations. these emigrations proved the destruction of the roman empire.”
there can be no doubt that this is a true account of the way in which poverty and over-rapid reproduction cause emigration in ancient and modern times; and we cannot help regarding the present warlike policy of england and germany as signs of a growing over-population in both of these states, which tempts the proletaire members of the governing classes to seek ever fresh territory, and makes the other classes of society so tolerant of such unjust conduct in their rulers. in fact, it may be truly said that the adoption of neo-malthusian views is the only really revolutionary measure, and the only safeguard of nations against wars of conquest or intestinal dissension.
in chapter vii. malthus speaks of the checks to population among modern pastoral nations. pastoral nations, although not so poor as hunting nations, are, of course, far more unable to acquire wealth than nations that have adopted agricultural pursuits. hence, population increases but slowly in such communities, and they are often on the verge of famine for 13lengthened periods. volney, in his travels, says, that the pastoral tribes of the arabian desert deny that the religion of mahomet was made for them. “for how,” they say, “can we perform ablutions when we have no water; how can we give alms when we have no riches; or what occasion can there be to fast during the month of ramadan, when we fast all the year?”
and yet it seems that in arabia, as elsewhere, the direct social encouragements to population are very great. a mahometan is taught that one of the great duties of man is to procreate children to glorify the creator. but, as mr. malthus truly says, “while the arabs retain their present manners, and the country remains in its present state of cultivation, the promise of paradise to every man who had ten children would but little increase their numbers, though it might greatly increase their misery.”
the checks to population existing in africa seem to be chiefly of the positive kind. incessant warfare, with death by famine or epidemics, are described by the early travellers on that continent, park and bruce, as carrying off whole tribes. park states that, independently of violent causes, the struggle for food is so great in most african states, that longevity is rare among the negroes. at forty, most of them become grayhaired and covered with wrinkles, and but few of them survive the age of fifty-five or sixty. there was, in his day, but little difficulty in obtaining slaves in times of famine in africa, as even free negroes were often so pressed with hunger as to entreat, according to dr. laidley, to be put on his slave-chain, to save them from starvation. bruce reports that, in many of the tribes, women begin to be mothers at the age of eleven: and to such a life of privation and care does this rapid reproduction lead, that he speaks of the women in some states near abyssinia as becoming, at the age of twenty-two, “more wrinkled and deformed by age, than an european woman is at sixty.”
mr. malthus, after a very curious account of the checks to population in northern and southern siberia, then passes on in chapter x., to treat of the turkish dominions and persia, and his remarks are especially interesting to our modern politicians. the fundamental cause of the low rate of increase of population in turkey, he truly remarks, is undoubtedly the nature of the turkish government. its tyranny, its feebleness, its bad laws, and worse administration of them, with the consequent insecurity of property, throw such obstacles in the 14way of agriculture, that the means of subsistence are necessarily decreasing yearly, and with them, of course, the number of people. it is calculated at the present day that population would double only once in 555 years in turkey, owing to the positive checks caused by its wretched government. the population of modern turkey is about 28 millions, or only some 16 persons per square mile; and, in 1876, it was stated in governmental reports that the population of the empire was fast declining, and its cultivated lands falling into the condition of deserts. in europe, as in asia, we are informed by malthus, it was the maxim of turkish policy, originating in the feebleness of government, and the fear of popular tumults, to keep the price of corn low in all the considerable towns. “when constantinople is in want of provisions, ten provinces are perhaps famished for a supply. at damascus, during the scarcity of 1784, the people paid only one penny farthing a pound for their bread, whilst the peasants in the villages were actually dying with hunger.”
as to the checks to population in persia, the dreadful convulsions to which that country has been subject for many hundred years must have been fatal to her agriculture. the periods of repose from external wars and internal commotions have been short and few, and even during the times of profound peace, the frontier provinces were constantly subject to the ravages of the tartars. hence the slow increase.
one of the most valuable parts of the essay on population is that wherein mr. malthus treats of the checks to population in hindostan and tibet. in hindostan, according to the ordinance of menu, the indian legislator, marriage is very greatly encouraged, and a male heir is considered as an object of the first importance. hindoo maidens are married at the age of eleven, and even younger: and become mothers before they attain the age of twelve. for such reasons, hindostan has been one of the most noted countries in the world for devastations, epidemics, and famines. the lower classes have for centuries been reduced to the extremest poverty, and compelled to adopt the most frugal and scanty mode of subsistence. whilst the average annual income per head in england was calculated, by mr. henry fawcett in 1870, at about some eighteen pounds; in hindostan, it was lately stated by mr. j. bright, that about two or three pounds sterling for food is all a hindoo peasant gets. and, as lord derby remarked in his admirable rochdale speech in 1879, the people of hindostan seem to be a marked example of 15how very low a standard of living a nation may people down to.
recent years have made us familiar with the tales of indian famines; but there is nothing novel in these in the history of that long over-peopled country. one of the jesuits cited by malthus says that it is impossible for him to describe the misery to which he was witness during the two years’ famine in 1737 and 1738, and another jesuit writes, “every year we baptize a thousand children, whom their parents can no longer feed, or who, being likely to die, are sold to us by their mothers in order to get rid of them.”
tibet, it seems, according to malthus, is perhaps the only country where habits tending to repress population are, or were, universally encouraged by the government. celibacy is there much encouraged among government employés, and the number of monasteries and nunneries is considerable. “but, even among the laity, the business of population goes on very coldly. all the brothers of a family, without any restriction of age or of numbers, associate their fortunes with one female, who is chosen by the eldest and considered as the mistress of the house.” it is evident that this custom, combined with the celibacy of such a numerous body of ecclesiastics, must operate, says malthus, in the most powerful manner as a preventive check to population. yet, according to mr. turner’s account, it appears that the population of tibet presses on the means of subsistence. tibet, in mr. turner’s time, seems to have suffered, as england now does, and as we hear that even our wealthy colonies of victoria and new south wales do, from a set of paupers created by an extremely unwise system of out-door relief—a system which but too often manufactures the very paupers it wishes to relieve.
mr. malthus’ account of the checks to population in china and japan, contained in chapter xij. of his work is one of the most important contributions to the question conceivable. his authorities are duhalde’s history of china and sir g. staunton’s account of his embassy to china. according to the former author, writing in 1738, the population of china was then estimated as at least three hundred and thirty-three millions. at present china is said to contain some four hundred millions.
the causes of the great populousness of china are, according to malthus, its advantageous position as to climate and irrigation, and the very great encouragement given to agriculture 16by the monarchs of that nation. the emperor himself every year, to set an example, ploughs a few ridges of land, and the mandarins of every city perform the same ceremony. the whole surface of the empire is, with trifling exceptions, dedicated to the production of food for man alone. there is no meadow, and very little pasture, and no waste land. even the soldiers of the chinese army are mostly employed in agriculture.
the extraordinary encouragements given to marriage also contribute to make china more populous in proportion to the extent of its territory than any other country. the permission given by parents to abandon their children, which exists in china, is shown by sir g. staunton to facilitate marriage, and cause even greater over-population than in more civilized states where such barbarities are not permitted. the effect of this early marriage and rapid peopling is to subdivide property; and it is a common remark among the chinese, that fortunes seldom continue considerable in the same family beyond the third generation. one of the jesuits, writing on china, says: “the richest and most flourishing empire of the world is, in one sense, the poorest and most miserable of all. four times as much territory would be necessary to put the inhabitants at their ease.”
it cannot be said in china, as it often is said in europe, that the poor are idle, and might gain a subsistence if they would work. the labours and efforts of these poor people are beyond conception. “a chinese will pass whole days in digging the earth, sometimes up to his knees in water, and in the evening is happy to eat a little spoonful of rice, and to drink the insipid water in which it is boiled.” this is the remark of a jesuit: and although it is evidently an exaggeration, since modern researches on diet show that such food could not maintain animal existence, it shows what miseries are caused by the peopling down to such a low standard of comfort.
“the procreative power,” says malthus, “would, with as much facility, double in twenty-five years the population of china, as that of any of the states of america.” we can readily sympathise, then, with the alarm felt by our fellow-countrymen in australasia and california, at the possible invasion of the untold millions which china could, with the greatest facility, pour into them. it is, for this reason, that the legislature of new south wales has quite recently, by a large majority, passed a bill to stem the current of chinese immigration. it will be for the ultimate advantage of the 17human race that nations with such a low standard of comfort as the chinese, should learn that they must imitate the more prosperous nations in prudential restraint before they can become entitled to claim to become citizens of such countries.
we have lately understood the magnitude of a chinese famine, where millions of unfortunate people are reduced to misery and death at once, from the failure of the crops. mr. malthus notices that, in such times of dearth, china can obtain no assistance from her neighbours: and must perforce draw the whole of her resources from her own provinces. when such failures of the crops occur, the government of china pretend to be very assiduous in providing schemes for the miseries of the people; but, in the meanwhile, hosts of unfortunates are starved to death, since there is not enough food forthcoming, so little margin is left, on account of the very scanty share falling to the lot of each, even in times of plenty.
in this chapter upon china and japan malthus makes an acute remark on the question, which is sometimes discussed in this country, whether the consumption of grain in the manufacture of spirits is ever a cause of famine. the whole tendency of such a manufacture is, he asserts, to the contrary. “the consumption of corn, in any other way but that of necessary food, checks the population before it arrives at the utmost limits of subsistence, and, as the grain may be withdrawn from this particular use in the time of a scarcity, a public granary is thus opened richer probably than could have been formed by any other means. when such a consumption has been once established, and has become permanent, its effect is exactly as if a piece of land, with all the people upon it, were removed from the country. the rest of the people would certainly be precisely in the same state as they were before, neither better nor worse, in years of average plenty; but, in a time of dearth, the produce of this land would be returned to them, without the mouths to help them to eat it.”
this fact should be borne in mind by mr. hoyle and other writers on abstinence from alcohol, since the advocacy of a good cause is often impeded by incorrect reasoning. “china, without her distilleries, would certainly be more populous,” says malthus, “but on a failure of the seasons would have still less resource than she has at present, and as far as the magnitude of the cause would operate, would, in consequence, be more subject to famines, and those famines would be severe.” temperance advocates, then, should, if possible, try to substitute a less injurious luxury in the place of alcohol, which 18causes so much disease; and not forget that the poverty of over-population is one of the great causes of drunkenness.
the principal cause of the great populousness of japan is doubtless the persevering industry of the inhabitants. the checks to population in japan have been famines, as in china and hindostan; but the japanese are also more warlike than the chinese, and there is much less encouragement given to marriage in japan than there is in china. hence the superior enlightenment of the japanese, and the intelligence which has recently made them so alive to the benefits conferred on mankind by european civilization.
the all-important nature of the discovery of malthus may be better seen by comparing the condition of china with that of the united states of america, than by any other example. so far advanced have the chinese been, for perhaps some thousands of years, in the knowledge of the art of agriculture, that it is now probable that the four hundred millions at present occupying the empire could not possibly double in any given number of years. whereas, the population of the united states has for the last century continued to double, aided by immigration, in periods of less than twenty-five years. he must, indeed, be gifted with a poor capacity for reason, who does not, on comparing these two rates, at once see, that the grand problem for our race is to prevent the instinct of reproduction from causing the terrible evils of early death, and chronic poverty. to introduce the new malthusian views into china and hindostan is the only way to cope with the famines, infanticides, and life-long starvation of these terribly over-peopled countries.
